By Muhammed Sayed – Climate Finance Specialist – Development Bank of Southern Africa
The spectre of climate change looms large over Southern Africa, casting a long shadow on our water security and essential infrastructure investments. As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, disrupting rainfall patterns, and water availability for essential economies and infrastructure sectors, it is imperative that we reimagine our approach to development. The traditional infrastructure model that fails to factor in climate risks is no longer sustainable. We must shift our focus towards creating resilient infrastructure that can withstand the challenges posed by a changing climate. This requires prioritising long-term sustainability over short-term gains.
In the heart of Southern Africa, communities grapple daily with the impacts of climate change. From devastating floods to crippling droughts, the realities of water insecurity, an unpredictable climate underscore the urgency for action. Accurate and timely climate information is the cornerstone of building resilient infrastructure. Investing in Climate Information and Early Warning Systems (CIEWS) can equip us with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions about where and how to invest. CIEWS can provide valuable insights into future climate trends, allowing us to anticipate and proactively mitigate potential risks. In essence, data-driven decision-making is the key to unlocking the full potential of our infrastructure investments.
Climate resilience is not just about building physical infrastructure; it is also about empowering communities to adapt to a changing climate and shifts in rainfall patterns and water availability. By ensuring that CIEWS are accessible and usable by local communities, we can foster a sense of ownership and responsibility. When communities are equipped with the tools and knowledge they need to understand and respond to climate risks, they can better protect their livelihoods and contribute to building a more resilient future.
The cost of inaction is far greater than the cost of investment. A recent report by the Global Commission on Economics[1] of Water shows that more than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly accelerating water crisis grips the planet, unless urgent action is taken to conserve water resources and end the destruction of the ecosystems on which our fresh water depends. By prioritising climate-resilient infrastructure, we can safeguard our investments and assets, protect our communities, and create a more sustainable future.
The stakes are high. Alarmingly, nearly 49% of Least Developed Countries (LDCs), predominantly from Africa, lack effective multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS). Accurate, science-based climate data forms the bedrock of resilience building and is crucial for achieving water-related socio-economic targets outlined in the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In Southern Africa, frequent climate hazards exacerbate the water security crisis, escalating the investment gap and damaging CIEWS and water infrastructure. Since 1980, over 142 million people in the region have been affected by climate-induced disasters, including the devastating cyclones Idai and Kenneth in 2019, which caused widespread destruction across Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and the Comoros, leading to over 1,000 fatalities and necessitating more than $2 billion in humanitarian aid. The 2022 floods in Durban further underscored the urgency of investing in reliable CIEWS and hydrological infrastructure to inform sound investment decisions and access innovative blended finance for sustainability.
In response to the challenge, SADC in collaboration with the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), Green Climate Fund and Global Water Partnership South Africa (GWPSA) have initiated a regional initiative to bolster climate resilience and water security in the region through the SADC Regional Climate Resilient Water Investment Programme (SADC-AIP). Part of the African Union led Continental Africa Water Investment Programme, the SADC-AIP will promote climate-resilient development through access to reliable climate information, hydrological services, impact-based multi-hazard early warning systems and investments in water security. This initiative aims to bolster the resilience of the SADC region by driving a paradigm shift towards investments in scarce water resources, informed by high-quality CIEWS and innovative financing approaches for climate resilience.
The upcoming climate discussions at COP29 will introduce this initiative which focuses on identifying key barriers to reliable CIEWS, crucial for understanding the primary obstacles that hinder the provision of reliable Climate-Informed Early Warning Systems. Promoting early warning systems in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region necessitates the exploration of effective strategies for member states to implement Impact-Based Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Early Action initiatives. Strengthening CIEWS is essential to support infrastructure and resilience financing, with discussions focusing on enhancing these systems, particularly regarding infrastructure design.
Furthermore, exploring innovative financing mechanisms is vital for identifying blended finance strategies and private sector sources, such as pension funds, insurance, sovereign wealth funds, and private equity, to bolster climate resilience initiatives. Facilitating transformational investments involves unpacking how CIEWS can guide climate-resilient infrastructure investments, ultimately helping to mitigate climate-related disaster risks while promoting sustainable development.
Among the discussion issues, sharing examples of successful climate early warning systems that have informed climate-resilient infrastructure investments will be valuable. Ensuring accessibility and usability of these systems for local communities and infrastructure planners is essential for effective implementation. Key challenges in integrating climate early warning systems into infrastructure investment decisions include various technical, financial, and institutional barriers. Moreover, balancing short-term infrastructure development with long-term climate resilience is crucial for sustainable planning. The role of data and analytics is significant in supporting these systems and guiding investment decisions. It is also necessary to ensure that climate early warning systems are equitable and inclusive, effectively addressing the needs of vulnerable populations.
We must also establish key policy and regulatory changes to support the integration of CIEWS in infrastructure investments. Examples of climate early warning systems integrated into national or local infrastructure development plans can illustrate effective practices. Furthermore, it is essential that these systems are flexible and adaptable to changing climate conditions and infrastructure needs. Identifying key capacity-building and training requirements for infrastructure planners and decision-makers is essential for the effective use of these systems. The role of international cooperation and knowledge sharing is vital in supporting their development and use.
Integrating climate early warning systems into existing infrastructure development frameworks and tools is necessary for enhancing decision-making processes. Establishing key performance indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of these systems in informing infrastructure investment decisions is critical. A successful public-private partnership in developing and implementing climate early warning systems would exemplify effective collaboration. Finally, integrating these systems into disaster risk reduction and management frameworks is crucial for enhancing community resilience, while examples of innovative blended finance mechanisms can provide valuable insights into effective funding strategies.
As we embark on this journey toward a more resilient Southern Africa, the DBSA conversation at COP29 will focus on identifying the necessary financing mechanisms and investments required to restore and install appropriate CIEWS and hydrological infrastructure, thereby supporting science-led decision-making for sustainability.
Let us work together to transform our infrastructure investments and empower our communities, ensuring a sustainable future for Southern Africa thus building Africa’s prosperity.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk
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Muhammed is a highly skilled Climate Change and Environment Finance Specialist at the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). In his strategic role, he provides expert advice on accessing diverse climate financing mechanisms, including the conceptualisation and development of proposals aligned with the DBSA’s priorities, such as the establishment of a Climate Finance Facility.
He offers comprehensive advisory services across all sectors of the bank concerning climate change issues and maintains ongoing dialogues with key external climate partners on behalf of the institution. Muhammed's expertise encompasses climate and environmental project finance mobilisation, including mechanisms from the UNFCCC, and program management for Green Economy initiatives. He specialises in Climate Change and Just Transition Policy Frameworks for Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), as well as the commercialisation of novel technologies and venture capital.
His skills include market analysis, business plan evaluation and review, business valuations, due diligence exercises, deal and investment structuring, negotiation, fund management, and intellectual property commercialisation strategies. This expertise has been successfully applied across a variety of sectors, including advanced manufacturing, nuclear energy, ICT, mining, health, agriculture, and biotechnology.
About the Development Bank of Southern Africa
The Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) is a leading Development Finance Institution (DFI), wholly owned by the government of South Africa. Established in 1983, the DBSA is mandated to promote economic growth and regional integration by mobilising financial and other resources from national and international private and public sectors for sustainable development projects and programmes in South Africa, SADC, and the wider African continent. www.dbsa.org